In a normal recession, the to-do list is clear. Copies of Keynes are dusted off, the Fed lowers interest rates, the president and Congress cut taxes and hike spending. In time, purchasing, production and loans perk up, and Keynes is placed back on the shelf. No larger alterations to the economy are made, because our economy, but for the occasional bump in the road, is fundamentally sound.

This has been the drill in every recession since World War II.

Republicans and Democrats argue over whose taxes should be cut the most and which projects should be funded, but, under public pressure to do something, they usually find some mutually acceptable midpoint and enact a stimulus package. Even in today's hyperpartisan Washington, the odds still favor such a deal.

This time, though, don't expect that to be the end of the story -- because the coming recession will not be normal, and our economy is not fundamentally sound. This time around, the nation will have to craft new versions of some of the reforms that Franklin Roosevelt created to steer the nation out of the Great Depression

Keynes:凱恩斯(1883-1946),英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。著有理論“凱恩斯經(jīng)濟(jì)”并對(duì)當(dāng)代許多政治經(jīng)濟(jì)理論以及政府財(cái)政手段提供了研究方向。他提倡,為緩解金融危機(jī),大蕭條或經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫所帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響,政府必須采取干預(yù)措施以及多種財(cái)政貨幣政策。他是當(dāng)代宏觀經(jīng)歷理論之父,20世紀(jì)影響廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家之一。自1929-33的“大蕭條”危機(jī)以來(lái),西方資本主義世界再也沒(méi)有發(fā)生過(guò)如此大規(guī)模的危機(jī)。西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為他們通過(guò)凱恩斯主義給經(jīng)濟(jì)裝上了一套“穩(wěn)定器”。凱恩斯主義主張,應(yīng)通過(guò)國(guó)家直接干預(yù)經(jīng)濟(jì),調(diào)節(jié)生產(chǎn),增加投資,刺激消費(fèi),保證充分就業(yè)等政策措施。而后來(lái)在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條期,總統(tǒng)羅斯福臨危受命,他的“白日新政”基本也是參照這一思路,才使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)度過(guò)難關(guān)。

hyperpartisan Washington:hyper-,極度的;partisan,黨派人士。意指極度擁護(hù)自己所屬黨派而反對(duì)其他黨派,一意孤行甚而想至其他黨派于死地的黨派人士。強(qiáng)硬的黨派人士。Hyperpartisan Washionton, 位于華盛頓總部的各個(gè)強(qiáng)硬黨派。

Franklin Roosevelt created to steer the nation out of the Great Depression:羅斯福(1882-1945),美國(guó)第32任總統(tǒng)。20世紀(jì)30年代其執(zhí)政期間正值美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條,其臨危受命,通過(guò)“新政”大規(guī)模地首次嘗試實(shí)行了一套“反危機(jī)”的方法,留下了一個(gè)耐人尋味的成功先例。羅斯福應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的一系列政策后來(lái)被稱(chēng)作“新政”(NewDeal),其核心是三個(gè)R:改革(Reform)、復(fù)興(Recovery)和救濟(jì)(Relief)。羅斯福新政的第一個(gè)階段,即改革,使政府整頓金融體系,充分恢復(fù)貨幣調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)的潤(rùn)滑作用;同時(shí),幫助就業(yè),增加消費(fèi),刺激生產(chǎn),實(shí)現(xiàn)均衡發(fā)展。第二階段,即復(fù)興,他制定了旨在整頓工業(yè)的《全國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)興法》。第三階段救濟(jì)的主要方面是以工代賑,羅斯福上任后傾注了極大的力量興辦大規(guī)模的公共工程,以擴(kuò)大政府開(kāi)支來(lái)彌補(bǔ)私人投資下降而出現(xiàn)的空白,并解決部分就業(yè)問(wèn)題,而非單純的發(fā)放救濟(jì)金。正如我們上述所說(shuō),凱恩斯主義是羅斯福新政的先驅(qū),而新政內(nèi)容促進(jìn)了凱恩斯主義的成熟,并帶領(lǐng)整個(gè)國(guó)家走出了經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的陰影。

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